Book Review:

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All The Facts

American professional poker player and author
Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the winner of the 2004 Tournament of Champions and the only woman to win the NBC National Poker Heads Up Championship. Now, as a professional speaker and decision strategist, she merges her poker expertise with her cognitive psychology graduate work at UPenn. She is a founder of How I Decide, a non-profit that creates curricula and tools to improve decision making and critical thinking skills for under-served middle schoolers.
Annie Duke

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots’ one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handoff to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn’t yield the best outcome every time. There’s always an element of luck that you can’t control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? 

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it’s difficult to say “I’m not sure” in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don’t always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don’t always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don’t, you’ll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You’ll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Episode Transcriptions Unedited, Auto-Generated.

Tyson: 00:15 Welcome to the social chameleon show where it's our gold up. You learned growing transformative personal. When come it's that time again. Book review time we're doing this week this episode we're doing thinking in bets, making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts by any Duke. And they do real quick. She was a poker champion turned business consultant not teach us how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better as a result. What'd you think of this when ransom?

Ransom: 00:45 I don't know man. It's hard to say. It's ah, yeah, mixed reviews, I guess. Like a lot of the information I guess. So this is for me even awkward out there watching it, but a lot of information for me was kind of, I guess maybe the way it was presented as a little bit different. Yeah. Self to me didn't seem new, I guess, sort of speak. So it was just kind of like a different way of explaining what I already know and I didn't get any, I mean, I got a few new things out of it, but I don't know.

Tyson: 01:22 Yeah, no, that's what I liked about it too is a different lens I guess you could say on the information. It's a lot of heavy, heavy sports, heavy poker gambling terminology.

Ransom: 01:36 Yeah. And I think maybe that's what sets us apart. Or you're more like of the sports jock. I know like the opening, the book is involved frigging the Superbowl, the Superbowl at the Seahawks. And I was like, ah, I don't really care about all that. You probably have Oh yeah, I remember.

Tyson: 01:52 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. When she was talking about that, I was trying to think, cause I mean the, I guess the big headline, the big, you know, anchor of her book is that final play of the Seahawk Patriots game or Russell Wilson through that intersection there. I was trying to think back, first of all, I want to see officer Lewis. I know I was happy about that play but, and that's, that's just how it is. Like one of the worst plays in Superbowl history and all this stuff. So I was trying to think back like what did I, what did I think in that play? And, I mean, I don't know. I can only pretend what memories I think I have, but what I was, I'm pretty sure I was like, well, Russell was in your Shetty and that's exactly what I expected and I was happy about it. But it's funny how everybody Monday morning quarterback that and he really goes into a lot about that. And I that is I think why I like this book is because of some of that stuff.

Ransom: 02:49 Yeah. I mean she's gotten a lot of stuff in there that you probably relate to more than I do. But I guess that's the other takeaway from this book that I don't necessarily agree with. Like, you know, the book is more about, you know, I guess I'm kind of used to of all what the book was when I started reading it. But you know, the book is all about this stuff, right? Like using your skill to make decisions on things that you basically don't control the outcome over, which is, you know, to me is kind of like skewed aisle. It's like, why are you trying to break down all this skill? And I try to put all this stuff into something that you basically have no fatality outcome. Like I dunno, it just kind of seems self-defeating in that aspect of the book, but I don't know its own teach their own I guess.

Tyson: 03:44 And that's what I liked though. It's like, yes, you can't control these outcomes, but how much of it can you influence? How much of this can you make sure you're not using? You know, luck or whatever. This thing's has excuses and all these different types of things. That's what I really liked about it. It kind of gives you a, like we said earlier, they may have different lens or different framework to think about these kinds of things.

Ransom: 04:06 Don't get me wrong, I don't, you know, I'm just not, not here to say that you can't do anything about the situation you're in, but same time it's like this. The one thing I don't really enjoy about poker, and I guess she talks a lot about that too, is just like, you know, it doesn't matter how much skill you have per say, like you could lose it all just to look right, right. It doesn't matter how much you have and you know, and it just so you know, in analyzing the opening play like actuality, I guess, you know, statistics wise, they didn't think it was a good play, but it technically was a complaint. If you miss the, if you miss the ball, like you get another down nobody to duration, right? It's still running it on the forest, on the force plate or whatever, but whatever it means, teach your own. I got a sports jock, I could not relate to any of the stories that she had in this book. Like barely anything. I think she had like a princess bride reference in there as a calf. But other than that, like there's a lot of stuff. They talked about it and I was like, it's just, I don't remember that. I remember that. I'll come, I remember that article. So maybe that's harder reason I add on a time with the book too. A lot of examples that she gave I couldn't really relate to.

Tyson: 05:34 And I guess that's, I guess the, maybe the frame for recommending this book. It's like if you want to learn about this and you like sports and, or gambling poker, like the good way to think lens that an allergy, those, those situations definitely.

Ransom: 05:52 Right. But I mean, as far as somebody like me, you know, it's just like I do a lot of things, but like this is not like my heavy thing. She's heavy into sports. Right? And so if like big headline news, like I'm not even into big headline news either, so, but I dunno. Nonetheless, I guess you enjoy the book rather.

Tyson: 06:15 I did. I did

Ransom: 06:17 For me. I'm like, man, it's okay. Yeah. But there were, I guess a lot of things in here that I think that the author does very elegantly and explaining and she kind of shed light on things. So, you know, I had to like at our time, stomach in the book, but you know, once it's digested, I did pull force its nutrients. Like it's not too bad. But yeah, I don't know.

Tyson: 06:44 There was a couple of things. I guess my favorite parts were thinking about hindsight bias. And that's always like a big thing. And I think this is a good, her analogies are a good way of, of, of looking at it in a practical sense. You know, it's like through, through poker, through the football or through whatever, it's like, it's easy to look at your hand and be like, Oh, I should have done this. Oh I knew this would happen. Or what are these different things that are really just fallacies and things that just aren't true. And if no way you could have ever predicted that there's no way he could have ever done it. You know? And that's the thing that really I think gives you a nice framework to start to take this into your real life and look at this things. And, and when you catch yourself saying, I knew that was gonna happen. I knew I seen this coming and say, you know what, no, that's not true. That's bullshit. And there's no way I could've known that you did. You wouldn't have made the decisions you did.

Ransom: 07:37 You know, and I guess I guess this for those who, if you want an idea of what the book is, like when I first started reading the book, I thought she was gonna talk about like how to play poker and like skills on how to play poker and stuff like that. And then like as you get halfway to the book, you're like, no, that's not really what she's talking about. And then like, you're like, well, what is she talking about? But like, you know

Tyson: 08:00 [Inaudible]

Ransom: 08:00 Me, the book is about life and it's like how you look at life. And she kind of takes it into account of all of her experiences, number one of which is gambling. So, and poker being, the main aspect of that is basically, you know, when you play poker, like you don't know what the outcomes would be. You have certain rules that people follow for the game. And it's the same thing for life. People follow certain rules and it just kind of like, this is how you know you. Another way to look at life is like playing poker. So like that's kinda like what I took away from the book. So I dunno. That's my best way of explaining what the book is. I don't know if that's accurate but I don't know.

Tyson: 08:54 I never thought of it through that, that type

Ransom: 08:55 Of thinking about it does reading the book though, I was like what am I reading? Like what is she talking about? Like we're talking about poker, we're talking about sports, talking about gambling. I was like, yeah. Then like come to the conclusion at the end. Like she doesn't state it that way. Again, another reason why I'm not too great about the book, but the way I read the book, like if you, if you want an interesting way to look at life in the fact that you can't control all the outcomes of life yet the rules are simple, right? Go to school, get a job or start a business or whatever. Like there's different rules that people follow. But for the most part, the rules are the same. Yet the outcome of your life is always, you know, not really always up to you. And that's kinda like, you know, safety with a hindsight bias, what you're talking about. It's like, well, I knew that would happen where I thought this was like, nah, you know what is she was, she was, she was a RAF for something, for a car game. She was a dealer for a card game. The amounts or whatever. Yeah. She's like the announcer for it and then like some guys are, Oh, you were wrong. Yeah.

Ransom: 10:03 She's like, I wasn't wrong. She says it's just the, the, the least favorite hat and one around. And then like the next time, the next, the guy said, Oh yeah, they'll at least have them want to get like the least, the lower end you want to get kind of what it's about. Like it's just like, you know, you know what things are looking into Lexis. Like, Oh, I knew that would happen. Well, you didn't know what happened. If you think about it from a poker aspect or from a gambling aspect, you would kind of put odds on that. Like the odds of that happening are 90% but is that really going to happen? Is X, Y, Z, and like, you know, from there when you look in poker, you also have to put like, well, how much money am I going to put on that bed?

Ransom: 10:47 You know? But like, I dunno. To me that's kind of what I looked at when I saw the hindsight bias is like, it's not simple. I mean, that would happen. It'd be like, what are the odds of that happening? And you know, what am I willing to risk to either make that happen or if it doesn't happen? You know? That's kind of where the book to me kind of excels and a lot of things. I think she, you know, she does a really good job of explaining things in that way, which is kind of, Ooh, I don't know. Yeah,

Tyson: 11:15 That's the thing, right? We think about like different things like that analogy or like people with the 2016 election, it's like, Oh, you're 80% chance to win. Like why didn't you win? Well, there wasn't a hundred obviously like there was still a chance at the other option and that's the thing we don't think about. It's like what are you your favorites, Wayne and why didn't you and what are your 16? The one that way? And like why didn't you win? Like statistically you're going to win. Why didn't you win? Well, because there is the other portion of that that, and that's when you got to stop thinking it was, I sorry, not having the information that I needed. What was, what you know was my, was my analysis correct. Was all these different things. You've got to go back and say, you know, yes. All that was good. I just got the, the smallest smaller percentage of likelihood actually was the outcome. Okay, great. All my decisions were solid. All my information was solid and that's when you got to look and say, this is a good result. This is a good, a good, a good, a good situation, good information, poor results,

Ransom: 12:15 Awesome. Yeah. But the outcome is not favorable. Right, right, right, right. You know, and that's kind of like, you know, once you get through that and like if you read the book with that lens like in the book to me makes a lot more sense. You know, and kind of how to do that. So I don't know. One of the things I liked about it is how she talked about skill versus luck and for those you out there reading I mean I haven't read the book and go on talking about like she uses skill and luck like in I guess different definitions. So skill is an outcome and the desired outcome that was accomplished do your own, you know, things within your own control, your decision making process, you know,X , Y, Z versus luck is an outcome that comes, you know, without any of your stealing. Like that's just life happening or that's just the way the cards landed or you know what I mean? Like there was no real decision making process in that there was no real skill, right. To deal involved with that. It's just kind of way the way the cards landed and like she does a really good job of explaining, I think in the book is called fielding outcomes. Is that right?

Tyson: 13:31 That sounds about right.

Ransom: 13:32 Yeah. So fielding outcomes is what it is. It's basically like, you know and she goes even further to explain like, you know, especially in poker and you can even take this sport to your life. Like when things happen that are good to you, like you tend to take credit for that, you know? Yeah. That was me. Like that was my skill or that me, that happened when in actuality it may have been luck. Right. Or they're like, do the opposite of that. And so when other people have success in their life or what other people, you know, when that, you know, the often bias is like, Oh, that person was just luck. They're actually not more skillful than I am. They're just locked in. Like, I don't know, those kinds of things. To me, it's just kind of when she talks about this like that and that kinda like turns the light on and I'm like, Hmm.

Ransom: 14:26 You know, I was like, I'm pretty sure I felt that way more often in my life than not. But you know, I'm pretty sure everybody feels that way. It's like, you know, whenever your team, whenever two teams go against each other, one of them loses. How many times are you that person? Like that other team was just lucky. You're not saying they won because they were lucky versus like, you know, what did you actually, you know, looking within, it's like, did I actually deserve it with that game was making the best decisions. You know what I mean? Like that kind of stuff. But that hits home with me. I don't know. I can relate to that a lot.

Tyson: 14:59 Yeah, those are the, those are the nuance things that I like. Those little labels, like you're saying, turning on and, and that's the thing I really liked the, I, I kinda gained main things I gained from this book was analyzing those wins and asking yourself those questions. Like did, did I win because I made the best decisions, I did the best research, whatever it is or, or did I win because I was in, I was, you know, I was lucky I was in a good, you know, I was in the right place at the right time. Like all these things, like what am I taking credit for here? Like am I taking credit for skill? Am I taking credit for, luckily that's fun. Like we don't sit back and analyze the wins and if we do, we're not ticking through a lens of, of what did I leave something on the table that I get everything out of this? I could have like how much more could I have one, how much easier could it have been the wind, you know, like that's like the things that like, Oh shit. Like I don't think about those things, you know, cause you when you're like, yeah, I'm good, I'm great. I'm fucking man, I won. And how did you win? Why did you win?

Ransom: 15:54 But you know what I mean? Like that's just, that's just the thing. The other thing I liked, she kind of brings him about as like life is more like poker. It's not more like chess. I mean like chess is very calculating. You know what I mean? Like for game, you know, politics night or whatever, like that's pretty concrete. That's pretty solid. A game. The way it opens, each person has one turn now, like from the way that turns are going, like you can kind of predict the outcome of that game. Either way it's going like sure a person can do a movement you don't predict, but you can essentially just kind of turn your way around and in between go about that versus poker and you can't really determine any of that out of you play the best you can. It's like if you play chess and you're like, okay, check and then the other person next group gets checkmate. Like that doesn't happen in chess. But again, [inaudible] sense. Yeah, right. Exactly. Yeah.

Tyson: 16:49 Chess is pure skill versus poker is skill and luck.

Ransom: 16:53 Right. And like, you know, then she gets further into like talking about game theory and stuff like that on the same, Oh, but you know, she's right and explaining the fact that life is that way. You know? So what if you're the number one jock on the football team? Like those, to me, you're going to be the most successful person in the high school. And I'm saying, or even if you're the smartest students in the class, like that doesn't guarantee you success in life. There's still an element that's outside of your control, right? Your luck or whatever you want to call it. That's just the way the car is drawn. Or timing of something, you know, meet in your life. Like I can troll or kind of change everything and it's not based on skill at all. Yeah.

Tyson: 17:39 Yeah. So it's at that old analogy, right? The, the a and B students work for the C students. Right? So it's like you just never, you never know. Those things don't dictate outcome. Yeah.

Ransom: 17:50 And that's, you know, again, like I go saying like this, this book is an interesting way to kind of look at life. Like, you know, you know, was that something that happened? You know, even though it was favorable skill was, was there something better? Those are all kind of things to see with the book.

Tyson: 18:12 Yeah, no. Yeah, that, that, that is a fun, that's the fun stuff about this. Yeah, I dunno.

Ransom: 18:19 [Inaudible] Something I see you looking down there.

Tyson: 18:26 No, just as trying to, I was just trying to think about something. [inaudible]

Ransom: 18:30 I don't know. Never mind moving on over it on [inaudible] go ahead. Go ahead. No, just one of the other parts I liked about the book too, you know you know, like how you're talking about analyzing wins. Like, you know, she forms a pod rate and I dunno, whale pod, I don't know, whatever kind of poker pod she plays. But groups of people where they actually get together and they analyze not only wins, but they also had all those losses too. Right. You know, dude, I really do that hand correctly. Or did I know that I played that to the best of my ability or the way to position is. And then like there's one point in the book when she just got really upset and she's like, you know, that guy's so lucky about, she'll want to have all about, you know, the people in our pod are like, I'll save it. Like we don't want to hear your story. Like we don't, we don't want any story. Like I was like damn like, but I guess I kind of relate to that a lot. I don't know. But cause I'm more of the truth seeker type of person that I am the person that just kind of vent my emotions at all. You're more of a venting emotion versus sometimes

Tyson: 19:47 I yeah, I go in, I go in between sometimes just want to get some stuff off your chest. It's like just, I think to me it w I'm just at a point where I don't, I don't know where to go next. And it's just like, you just gotta like spit all that shit out to like think through that.

Ransom: 20:01 Yeah, no, that's true. But I mean in this kind of like, the thing I liked is we might even do an episode about truth seeking later is just like, it's, it's such a hard thing to do like it out there and start looking for the truth and things because other people out there, they don't, they're not interested in the truth, but you know what I'm saying? Like most people are, they don't want to hear the fact that they won because of blah, you know what I mean? Or they don't, they don't want to actually hear that they lost because the other person was more skillful than they were. And I'm going to say,

Tyson: 20:37 Yeah, yeah. It's hard to have an introspection right in to say, you know, you're fucking up. Like you're not doing things like you're not living up to your stuff. All you're doing is bitching, like you're to lose some hands. Like why are you losing them? But I'll never mind. It's the fuck this is lucky to sell whatever it is in life or whatever you're doing. It's like, if you're not looking at that and you're not, or you're not taking feedback and saying, listen man, your [inaudible] course ain't up to par, but like, and you're like, no, it is a fucking bomb. They don't, you're talking about like you're never just going to get better.

Ransom: 21:05 Yeah. But no, I mean, but that's just life though. I mean, just look at like, you know, and again, if you're out there watching and not talking to you specifically or whatever, but like this show is a bottle. Like get out there and like notice the conversations you're having with people. Is the conversation really about the truth and really about what's happening? Or are you basically just venting? Are you basically just spitting out emotions to kind of make something appear either more or less than something actually is versus actually saying like, Oh, like that, that was actually very skillful. You know, he's like, you know, and I hate this as much as this guy. I forget eight Sam Harris, he always comes out in conversation just like that book lying. Like, I mean, I didn't read all of it, but you know, it's just like, you know, it's just a simple conversations.

Ransom: 21:59 We get into a simple, how's your day already? You know what I mean? Like what, you know, like these are not true seeking activities. These are just things that we can get along and venting. So just kind of know that in life. Like we need both. You can't always be 100% truthful all the time like, you know, but just to kind of know, like you could have a group of friends or your whale pod or whatever the case is where you can actually just sit down and just grind it out and talk about truth where nobody's going to be offended in that conversation and just kind of keep the emotions out of it. And you know, if you can accomplish this in no matter what you're trying to do in life, either in your work or your spirituality or whatever the case might be, like, you know, sitting down and speaking truths helps you kind of analyze, you know, what's going on in the background.

Tyson: 22:46 Yeah. That was the thing in that, that section that was really interesting too that I never thought about before was asking people or, or, or, or some type of hinting at people and like, why are you here to vent? Are you here for truth and you're going to solve problems? And then like, sometimes people just want to vent. You just shut your fucking face and just listen. So people are, are, are, are, are venting or trying to communicate in the way that they're trying to seek the truth. And, and that was something I, I, you know you know, especially with, you know, your, your spouse or your, your kids or your friends, you always, you hear them say stuff, you're like, all right, here's the solution. They're like, I didn't ask for a fucking solution. I don't give a shit about this solution, you know? And, and so lately I've been like, are you venting right now or do you want like to talk through this? So I'm just venting. Okay, cool. And it's just like, I can just let my mind kind of shut down and just listen, you know? And it's just like, instead of trying to like have this know either argument or trying to solve the problem and then making that into something, it's not like that that's been kind of a good relief or stress relief or better communication thing. I've been enjoying that. That's been kind of fun.

Ransom: 23:48 Yeah. Nice. Nice. Yeah. Who are some of the other things you liked about the book?

Tyson: 23:54 I guess backcasting you know, like that, that photo of, of, of that like a post-mortem or a different thing like that. That was,

Ransom: 24:06 I don't really agree with the way she like put that out or like making future copies of yourself. I'm like

Tyson: 24:12 Here,

Ransom: 24:12 Like I just, that analogy I just like, I don't understand where you're going with this, but I don't know. In my opinion, back-casting is basically just the ability to kind of like sync backwards from the result that you want to like get what you need and I guess, and just kind of putting everything all together. I don't really know about past and present future and superpowers and uniting one to become counts and it or whatever. But I really didn't like that analogy, but basically just, you know, you're trying to achieve a result and you basically start and you go backwards and the football, you're trying to accomplish it or do. And I dunno. Yeah, that's, that's a good technique though. I'm not gonna lie bad analogy. I don't know.

Tyson: 25:03 Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I, but the, like you're saying the thought of, you know, and that's the thing that really, really kind of stops people. Trans people gets momentum kind of killed and all this things is, is you're, you're, you think you just think of this singular thing in the future. I want to, I want to do this, I want to beat that. And it's like, and you're just thinking where you are and where you want to go, and you're just like, I'm just going to head that direction. I don't really know how, I don't know what this looks like versus saying if I was to be a doctor, like what would that be? Like? What hot. Okay. I gotta I gotta go to residency. Okay. I gotta I gotta I gotta be an attending. I gotta say I gotta okay, I got to go to medical school.

Tyson: 25:37 Okay, I got to get into medical school. I gotta, I gotta go to college. Like, Oh fuck. Like Whoa shit. This is a lot of steps to do this thing and say, okay, you went back to where you are today. Okay, today I'm 16. I'm a junior in high school. Okay, what do I have to do now to get to that next step and identify and you're going to find stuff that you never even fucking thought of. But if you know, like generally where the next step is kinda headed. I do think it helps a lot and it makes things feel more manageable. It makes you overwhelmed. Kind of goes away a little bit. Like I just got to send three emails today. That's all I gotta do. Cause I know that's working towards this bigger step, which is part of this bigger project.

Ransom: 26:15 Right. And then I'm not sure if it's in the same area or not, but like in the backcasting portion or whatever, they'll book, I'm pretty sure it's like close to that. She also talks about thinking about negative things.

Tyson: 26:29 Yeah.

Ransom: 26:30 You know, and then like there's been studies out there, I guess according to what she's saying, that have shown that if you can forecast in the future that there will be bad times ahead. You know, you're more prepared in a way. It's kind of counterintuitive because you're putting negative thinking into a positive thinking, thought space, but just being prepared for those negative outcomes can actually help you achieve your goal, which is kind of interesting.

Tyson: 26:59 Yeah. So that's something I've been discovering lately. It's that negative negative thinking, negative thought process in, in this, in this context of, okay, what are the future problems? What are the potential risks? What are the, what's going to go horribly wrong? And seeing can I, can I use it in the bottle? Can I get an insurance policy? Can I pick up a you know, a scanner? Can I do what, do whatever the fuck you're going to do to make sure that doesn't happen to them. Best of your abilities without going overboard and becoming a crazy person. Yeah. Or sinning is stuff like that. Man, I guess I get that often.

Ransom: 27:34 Everybody's like, you know, like as like, no, I'm not listening. It's just because I'm out there, you know, suggesting or thinking that something bad may happen that's not trying to, you know, bring that into physical manifestation. I'm just preparing myself in the event that it does happen. It's like, you know, like you don't take out insurance on your car because you know you're going to get into an accident, right?

Tyson: 28:01 You're preparing not to, but if an event does happen, I'm, I'm sad, I'm sad, happy.

Ransom: 28:08 You know, like that's the same, the same principle when you are going through this backcasting thing is like put some negative things in there. Like yeah, I'm going to go to med school to be a doctor and I'm going to have like hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. Like those are good things to know. Like that's not a negative thought process. Like that's something that may stop you from doing it. But you know, if you're prepared for this negative event to happen and I call, I can go do this or I can, you know, prepare for this to happen. Like it's all a part of the process, it can actually make you more successful in the future. So,

Tyson: 28:45 Yeah, and that, that key element at the end, you're talking about theirs is already have thought about this already. Kind of thought through it a little bit. When you get into a situation, you're like, Hey, wait a minute, I kind of worked through this already and then you're less stressed. You know, you're, you're not surprised by it. You've got something kind of set out a little bit. Actually, I have a contingency for this. We may make some adjustments, but I've already kind of thought through this a little bit and you're more prepared and you're ready to tackle these as you go on. I was kind of remind me, I was talking to somebody that last week I think about an investment and it, and they're like, Oh, you know, people are trying to back out of this. And I'm like, like, why? And I'm like, Oh, it's risky.

Tyson: 29:20 There's no risk in this. Like, are you fucking kidding? Yes, there's risk. There's moment. The line is like, your expectations got to go into this. I'll never see this money. Like that's hard for some times for people, you know, like they're like, no, there's no risk here. I'm like, no, there is, I can think of 12 things like without even being a jackass that could absolutely go wrong that we can't control. Yeah. And then there were, there were just so, so set in that, no, nothing can go wrong. It's like, no, we've gotta be prepared for things to go wrong. I mean, especially that we don't control, we don't control necessarily the economy or the inflation or interest rates or whatever. These things that we just, we just can't talk at all, but we've gotta be prepared for it going.

Ransom: 30:02 That's the kind of thing that I think that this book prepares you for. Like when you talk to people who are just to go 100% of the whatever, it's like, they're like, okay, I'm not seeing everything and the worst is going to go wrong. But what are the chances of somebody being wrong? You're saying 100% is going to go right, like, let's be real. Why don't we just say 2% chance that something's gonna go wrong? You know what I mean? And like, and when you start from there, once you can like break that border like something small or you just never really had it like, Oh yeah, 1% chance at this, people wrong. Like, okay, well how much money would you put on that? You know what I mean? Like now you can start breaking down the numbers and like, you know, what would you do to improve your odds of winning that bet? Like, you know, I don't know. It's kinda crazy.

Tyson: 30:45 And that's the thing that was funny about this book that I, I just really laughed at myself and I know how many times you and I are and all of our friends have done it. It's like you're so confident about something. You're like, I'm telling you, like, that's John Candy's and I move you like, yeah, put a hundred bucks out. I mean, well, I mean, well, I mean, I'm pretty sure that was jockey. I mean,

Ransom: 31:04 It wasn't the money, dude. Remember slap vets. Yes, yes, yes, yes. [inaudible] Came out and like, everybody's like back it down like earth is flat, bro. I'm like, Oh yeah, slap Ben. Okay,

Tyson: 31:16 Well maybe it's round. I don't know. Yeah, right, right. But reminded me of that framework of like a silo thing that I don't think we've ever put any thought into that shit at all until you're back in that corner. You're like, ah, Oh no, maybe I'm not as cool

Ransom: 31:37 And thought I was like, where's the slap? It comes out. Everybody's like, Oh yeah, they like research real quick. You're like, no, no, no, ain't no research right now. We didn't do quite is on the table. I mean like when you, when you got something to risk, when you have something to lose, like that's when your mind kind of focuses in and you know, I know we talked about all kinds of stuff and even in the previous one like that. But is it option one or option two thinking, right? Like thinking fast, thinking slow, like automatically I'm thinking fast mode and I guess already on that number one mode and then all of a sudden window, you know when money's on the table so that that comes across like, Ooh, like thinking process two comes into play and you're like, wait a minute, is this something we should be doing? Like, I mean like, I don't know. I think that's a good, that's a good turn on there. I don't know. No idea.

Tyson: 32:31 So there's popped in my head real quick hair about something kind of along these lines. I feel like the younger generation is, doesn't quite these things a little bit. Maybe it's just we're older now, but anyway, my daughter was actually come home to school the other day. She's like, where's Vermont? I was like like the North East. She's like, that's what I thought. And I say, don't you all, you fuckers have fucking the world wide information in your fucking hands and all times. And she's like, man, she doesn't, but she's like, people that do, she get, my friend Googled it and she's like, it's in Germany. I was like, Germany. I was like, you didn't challenge that at all? She's like, no. I was just like, she go get it. It must be true. And it's like, and so then I go there and I was like, I don't know where she got that from.

Tyson: 33:17 But she was such in the belief that Vermont was in Germany. Either she pretended to Google it or no matter what the Google results were, she just was like, yeah, it's in Germany guys. Yeah. And everybody's like, okay, cool. And I say, I don't you challenge that at all? Like, I don't know. It's like, that wouldn't have flown in our day. I don't know. Like, you know, we just slapped it. Right. Everything that was real at that point. Yeah. You know, something doesn't make sense. It's like, no, no, no, no, no. That just doesn't make sense. You know? I did learn some things about Vermont, had no intention of learning. I barely, they declared a war on Germany prior to our involvement in world war II. So I was hoping that was fun to learn. So that's why it's in Germany. Right? That's what she must have saw that little headline and just completed it together.

Tyson: 34:06 And that's the only thing I could think of. I was looking up, I was really trying to find Vermont Germany. If anybody knows where Vermont Germany is, please let me know. I'm a, I'm interested to see this. Anyway, that's the point when you come up against this information, like don't, don't be afraid to challenge it. Like put, even if it's a hypothetical fiber lines, you fuck, I don't believe you. Like, you know, it's okay to challenge these things. Like it's okay to be wrong to, to learn something new, you know? But it goes back to that thing of, of that truth seeking. Like, you know, I was, I was like, I'm pretty sure I know of only one Vermont, but there could be a second one here. Let's, let's take a second and look at this. And you know sometimes people criticize it. I've been criticized for not like, why don't you just bleed?

Tyson: 34:54 Because that information is contrary to what I know or what I believe. Let's look it up and let's confirm this. This is not a thing to be vilified for and, and we seem to do that and it does happen and it's okay to, to, to seek that truth into put down, put down lunch, but on a soda on it. Put down 100 bucks. Fuck, slap somebody like it's okay. Like we've got to be able to, to seek the truth. We've gotta be able to speak freely so we can advance our knowledge. We can have back society, we've gotta be able to bend people and say, Hey, you're wrong. It's cool, I'm wrong too. Shit happens. Yeah. I think she talks about that in the book too. Like I'm ending on who's saying what?

Ransom: 35:38 Like you're, you can have bias on that information just because like thing you versus like your neighbor. Like, I mean like zip in like your daughter's keys. Like, you know, it's probably just that as a class was saying, it's everybody's like, Oh yeah, she's had a class then she's right. Like, you know, this book even challenges those theories. It's like, is that person, they are the, you know, are you really agreeing with what they're saying or do you just like them as a person, which is why you're agreeing with what they're saying. And that the opposite is true too. If you don't like that person, it's like, I don't like that person. I don't trust anything they say. But what might be, you know, we could, we could bring up some names, you know, like Donald Trump or something, but you know people may not like him, but like his, what he's saying true might be, might not be,

Tyson: 36:25 That was eyeopening to think about. I started thinking about that too. Like, yeah, I always just miss your dumb ass all the time. Like, huh, right. Yeah. Nothing you say to me could be possibly true even if it is true cause I just don't like you.

Ransom: 36:38 Oh, there it might be watching is that know me? It's, it'd be, it's like, yeah, it's like habits all the time. Like, ah, I don't believe you, but I'm, I'm wrong. I'm wrong all the time.

Tyson: 36:48 Yeah. And then, I mean to me that something comes from that and like, you know, the people that I can, I think I've taught my head that I don't believe anything. They say that you violated this trust and this this thing in the past. And it's like I just, it's happened so many times now that your, you're conflating something, you're, you're lying, you're exaggerating. Like you do this so often that I just, I just, I can't believe anything you say, you know, cause your crass behaviors dictate

Ransom: 37:15 You also gotta be careful and calling people out on that a lot. Cause you know, I call them way more often than I should. And yeah, I guess I, people get taken back by people, you know, things that I'm just like trying to do things and I'm like, no I'm not. I'm just, I'm just getting down to the whole truth seeking thing and you know, calling you out on whatever it is that you, that you're saying. Like it's not that I'm trying to discredit you. It's not that I'm attacking you, it's just like there's a statement here and we should verify that statement. That's all right. Yeah. A conversation almost never goes well like, Oh well you see that conversation's going to go like it never goes well. And I, I do it all the time, but again, I built up a lot of rapport with people before I do it. But it's a, it's a rough conversation.

Tyson: 38:10 Yeah. I've I, yeah, I've got my stuff in at a fair bit of trouble with that as well. Anything else with this book like this and this is some good stuff. There is this still a lot more to cover? If you're interested in this topic and you like sports, you like gambling, like poker and it's a great way that works with your mind that you can read and really get a grasp on a lot of these things. We've talked about many things like you said before from thinking fast and slow. We've talked about trust but verify and a couple of other of these different things that we've talked about. This is a great framework. If you have a sports mind, gambling mind to learn these lessons. That was good, man. You got anything else? You really talked about this,

Ransom: 38:55 But it did. I mean, the book to me, I didn't, I couldn't really relate to it, but I did get a lot out of it.

Tyson: 39:01 Yeah. I think there, there's a couple like I said, I was about three or four things I really took from this. And to me that's, no, that's, that's, that's a good book to me. You know, a couple of things. Maybe I knew them, maybe I didn't. Or, or bringing them to light, putting them in the forefront of my mind, giving me a different lens and perspective to think about. To me, that's a win. So, and if you're going to say something, I'm sorry. No, no, no. Good. Good man. If you're looking for, for more things, more wins, see what we got going on for the holidays and it was a social community that show slash pick me, see what we've got going on for giveaway. If you listen to this October we're going to do a fundraiser for, for feeding America in November.

Tyson: 39:46 We're gonna do some, some homeless things. And in December we're going to do some other gift giving, stuff like that. Whatever. If you're, you're beyond that. See we gotta go after giveaways. Either way. See what's up. Especially with the holidays coming up, give a helping hand, you know, people, we're all humans. Shit happens sometimes. It's lucky, sometimes a skill. You never know. It doesn't really fucking matter. Just helping another human out. And then we'll link to the book and any other resources and stuff like that for you guys to further your, your, your interest or knowledge on this ransom. Any links or things you want to shout out for this? Nah, nah.

Ransom: 40:19 This is, this book is kind of unique in its, in its own way and its own right. And so, yeah.

Tyson: 40:24 All right. And in this week's challenge, I want you guys to, to challenge your thinking, challenge your, your wins. Did you do all you could, is this skill, is it luck? Maybe throw it on a book, on money on it. There's different services and sites and apps that throw money at stuff to help you do this things. Even if it's just a bad exercise, you know the best part to me is challenging your wins. Like if you, if you think about it, if you're, if you're winning at your job 60% of the time, that's a lot of opportunity. Learning that you're missing. Don't miss that opportunity. You know, analyze those wins, see where you can get better. That's this week's challenge.

Ransom: 41:06 Yeah. And just for final thoughts, man, I mean, everything's just a thought out there until you know, somebody opposes it. So get out there, start opposing thoughts that you believe to be trove that you know to be true. Just to see. Yeah. Just to see like is it really true or is the source that it came from true. Like you know, this is, this book in this section is all about bringing awareness to the outcome of life is not needed. Determines it doesn't matter how much skill you have or how much luck you have, your outcome is yet to be determined. So get out there, start analyzing, and then be a part of it.

Tyson: 41:48 And if you're looking for people to help when with analyzing their life, you guys want to talk about this a little bit more. Share with them, chat about it, share for their gain and their knowledge. Like I said, I think it's a fun book if you definitely if you at least get sports and all this stuff, I've kind of beat that to death already. Sharing, sharing the show, leaving likes, leaving reviews. Best way to absolutely support the show. Head over to your favorite platform and do that in between shows. You can connect with us all week long and a social media show, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. Don't forget to subscribe on YouTube or your favorite podcast app as episode suddenly say everything we talk about here today, you can visit the social community show. Until next time, keep learning, keep growing and keep transforming into the person you want to be.


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